The European “five conditions” for peace talks are tantamount to Russian capitulation:
1. Immediate ceasefire
2. The current contact line becomes the starting point for negotiations. Ukraine can join NATO.
3. Legally binding security guarantees, including the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine.
4. Russian assets are used to compensate Ukraine
5. Deal requires the consent of EU and NATO member states ***
The objective of European leaders is to prolong the war and pull the US into a more direct role. Toward this end, the narrative being developed is that the Europeans and Zelensky want negotiations, while Russia does not. Russia has made it clear since 2014 that restoring Ukraine’s neutrality by ending NATO expansionism is a requirement for ending the conflict, while also demanding territorial concessions as a result of the war. The ceasefire will be used to rearm and regroup to prolong the war, the security guarantees and deployment of foreign troops undermine neutrality, and Russia will not accept giving up the money that was stolen. There is zero chance that any of these points can be met as the condition for peace talks. However, that is the point of setting such conditions for peace talks. The objective is to keep the war going, but manage the narrative after more than 4 years of boycotting diplomacy. Expect a lot of headlines about how European leaders are pushing for peace, only to meet resistance from Moscow.